# Max Pagels — Machine Learning Expert

> Machine learning specialist and technology leader based in Finland.
> Currently available. Contact: contact@maxpagels.com

## What I'm looking for

The hardest computer science and machine learning problems; the ones with the potential to change the world we live and work in. Despite recent work history on the CTO-level, I'm still hands-on, believing that you cannot lead technical teams unless you continuously hone your technical skills.

## Technical expertise

Primary domain: online (incremental) machine learning — algorithms that update per-observation in O(1) amortised time rather than requiring full batch retraining. Applied focus on contextual bandits, off-policy evaluation (IPS, DR, doubly-robust estimators), and reward estimation under partial feedback and non-stationarity. Author of Formative (https://www.maxpagels.com/formative), a causal estimation library, and author of the off-policy evaluation tutorial in the official Vowpal Wabbit documentation.

Secondary domains: linear and mixed-integer optimisation (LP/MIP formulations for scheduling, routing and resource allocation), time-series and signals analysis (spectral methods, change-point and anomaly detection, pattern-of-life / normalcy modelling), and distributed backend architectures for real-time inference (streaming ingestion, feature stores, sub-millisecond serving layers).

## Selected work

### Contextual bandits & real-time optimisation

Built some of the first real-time contextual bandit systems for high-volume recommendations in the Nordics, and real-time webpage optimisation for fashion retail. Constraints: per-observation online updates, partial (bandit) feedback, non-stationary reward distributions, and serving inside sub-second request budgets. Evaluation done off-policy (IPS / doubly-robust) rather than on live traffic where experimentation was constrained.

### Bidding under partial information

Bidding algorithms for second-price advertisement auctions under partial information, allocating ten-digit (€1B+) annual media budgets. Constraints: censored feedback from lost auctions, budget pacing, and non-stationary competition.

### Causal estimation of bonus program retention

Estimated the causal impact on retention of a third-party bonus/loyalty program carrying eight-digit (€10M+) annual license fees. Constraints: no clean randomised holdout, confounding from self-selecting engaged users. Used instrumental-variable regression and difference-in-differences to isolate the effect; the incremental retention did not justify the fees, and the program was decommissioned, saving €10M+ annually.

### High-availability payments infrastructure

Implemented payment processing (charges, holds, automatic refunds) and high-availability hosting for retail with multi-million annual revenues, alongside event-driven backends and a storefront for personalised fashion.

### Global commerce replatforming

Architected and shipped a composable, event-driven commerce platform for global fashion retail: headless CMS, commerce engine, payments, tax, and personalisation services, replacing a monolithic platform that couldn't absorb traffic spikes or multi-channel content reuse. Constraints: zero-downtime migration of a live revenue stream, multi-market catalogues, pricing and tax, and content authored once but published across web, email, SMS, and B2C channels.

## Career

- 2026–present: On gardening leave (available)
- 2023–2026: Head of Technology, Marimekko
- 2021–2023: Head of Technology, Fourkind / Thoughtworks
- 2017–2021: Machine Learning Partner, Fourkind
- 2015–2017: Developer → Data Science Specialist, SC5

## Education & background

- MSc, Computer Science, University of Helsinki; major in software systems, extended minor in mathematics and statistics
- Natively trilingual: Swedish, Finnish, English
- Finnish Defence Forces active reservist

## Select papers

- On Prompting, Priors, and What It Takes for LLMs to Produce Novelty, 2026 — https://www.maxpagels.com/llm-novelty-search.pdf
- Improving the Delivery Cycle: A Multiple-Case Study of the Toolchains in Finnish Software Intensive Enterprises, IST, 2016
- The Highways and Country Roads to Continuous Deployment, IEEE Software, 2015
- A Behavior Marker tool for measurement of the Non-Technical Skills of Software Professionals: An Empirical Investigation, SEKE, 2015
- Examining the Structure of Lean and Agile Values Among Software Developers, XP, 2014

## Links

- GitHub: https://github.com/maxpagels
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/maxpagels/
- Email: contact@maxpagels.com