Tag Archives: predictions

January 24, 2014

Debunking the Princeton paper

A recent paper (PDF) by researchers at Princeton predicts that Facebook will lose 80% of its users by 2015-2017. The prediction itself is based on Google data, which shows that search query data for “Facebook” is rapidly declining—just like what happened to search data for MySpace when it was on the decline.

Unfortunately, a decline in search queries does not necessarily mean a shrinking userbase. Facebook data scientists Mike Develin, Lada Adamic, and Sean Taylor debunked the findings in what is a rather hilarious blog post.

In keeping with the scientific principle “correlation equals causation,” our research unequivocally demonstrated that Princeton may be in danger of disappearing entirely.

Ouch.

December 18, 2013

IBM's '5 in 5'

Or, IBM’s list of five innovations that will change our lives in the next five years. Some lofty predictions, but given the pace at which everything is evolving, I wouldn’t bet against them.